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On Saturday September 14th, 2019, petroleum producer and America allied Saudi Arabia was severely cripple by a series of drones and missiles apparently launched from Iran. This assumption has been the position taken by the White House subject to confirmation from Saudi Arabia’s intelligence apparatus. Price of crude jumped 20% due to this event, increase not seen in the last 28 years. For the engineers at the Saudi Arabia, the fixing of the refinery will take several months, in the meantime, the production of crude decreased in about 5% of the total global oil supply cutting its output by an approximately 5.7 million of barrels per day. A gigantic amount of crude not getting to the world market. What follows is indeed what could change the path of the world! No one denies that Iran is behind this attack. The big question is whether the attack was launched from within the national territory of Iran or from one of its proxies. Option One – If this attack was launched from Yemen or Iraq, then the response of the United States and Saudi Arabia could be limited to a military action pretty much as a theater of international dimensions only. Option Two – If the evidence points to sustain that the attack was launched from within territory Irani, both United States and Saudi Arabia will have no other choice but to attack Iranian homeland. This cannot be avoided; in the Middle East appearing weak only encourages your enemies. One of the central observations you need to analyze is the fact that Iran chose to attack Saudi Arabia. And the attack was extreme by all points of views. What is the meaning of this act? What is Iran to proof to other nations? One of the conclusions is this: It seems that only overwhelming military force could deter Iran to continue in this path of destruction. There is no logic in this act, other than Iran taunting the USA it is difficult to find any logical or intelligent discernment to a decision of this magnitude. From many different points of view, it seems that Iran is carelessly calling for a global conflict. The events of the next few weeks will determine the impact this conflict could have in our live here at the other side of the world and thousands of miles from the Middle East. Most likely what follows is a series of allegations, warnings of annihilation from Iran and potentially others in the Middle East. Whatever is said, means absolutely nothing to compare to the potentially dangerous and volatile condition of pulling other nations into a conflict clearly initiated with several geo- political purposes. The question remains: What does Iran gain in this conflict against the USA? First, create political instability in the region. Second, provoke economic instability in the world. Third, demonstrate to the international community the impotency of the United States to act decisively and fourth, intimidate other nations and allies of the USA in the region, especially Israel. In any way we may see the situation, there is a central ingredient we do not want to leave out of view and that is the fact that Iran will force in one way or another, the hand of the presidency of the United States to re-negotiate conditions and soften elements of the economic embargo Iran wants to achieve. On the other hand, if President Trump, does not want to yield, then a serious and bloody conflict will emerge soon! In a simplistic view of events, Saudi Arabia may say it this way: “Someone cowardly attacked my installations and crippled my national economy; someone needs to pay or die”

September 19 2019

Iran Pushing for War A very dangerous situation at our doorstep…

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